What happened last week?
Australia, Japan and UK saw manufacturing and services PMIs pick up, Germany and eurozone PMIs ticked down particularly services, Philly FED US survey ticked down. So mixed on the global growth data front suggesting that reflation in Q4 is yet to be confirmed. Japan PPI came out high and so stagflation seems to be still a very real concern on a global level. Also, Fed’s Powell who has consistently called inflation transitory started to change his tone slightly on Friday when he noted that “supply-side constraints have gotten worse”. US yield curves continue to bear flatten which doesn’t paint a particularly rosy picture on the growth outlook. Fed hike expectations for 2022 have moved significantly but long bonds remain well bid. FED comments on Friday sparked a bit of risk off with Powell admitting that they would certainly act on rates if inflation got out of control which would likely slow the recovery in the labour market.
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Filmed on on Tuesday 26th October 2021.
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