ETH options flow explodes

In this week's Crypto Insight I discussed...


BTC TECHNICALS

BTC rallied to test 24k again after FOMC in line with the risk asset move higher but has since rejected the resistance and is back in the middle of the small ascending channel that has been in place since mid-June.


ETH HOLDS RELATIVE BID

Relative strength of ETH holding for now. The key support to hold is 1400 ETH or 0.064 ETH/BTC.

With these supports being respected, I would expect some upside to remain into key Merge catalyst dates such as 11Aug testnet merge and potentially 19Sep main-net merge.

ON-CHAIN METRICS

Key BTC on-chain takeaways from Glassnode this week:

1) Number of Active Addresses signals bullish impulses with rising and elevated levels of on-chain activity as more users enter the network; the opposite signals a bearish impulse. The all-time high in BTC spot price from Oct-Nov showed an apparent lack of follow through in demand with a lower high and has been in a clear downtrend since - suggesting little influx of new demand yet. Breaking above 950k would signal an uptick in on-chain activity, suggesting potential market strength and demand recovery.

2) Total Transaction Fees shows bull markets typically maintain elevated fee rates, but, similar to active addresses, demand destruction has been prevalent since May 2021. Currently…

CRYPTO VOL ANALYSIS

BTC realized stable at 65, ETH drifting slightly to sub-100. Implieds still holding slight premium to realized after reset last week. So far 19k- 24k BTC range being respected.

CRYPTO OPTIONS FLOWS

Calls dominating the flows in crypto options.

Both short-dated and long dated BTC calls bought outright with relatively cheap vols.

ETH seeing on-screen put sellers in the front, 26Aug 1800 & 2200 call buyers and Dec22 & Mar23 massive call spreads and call flys still the preferred expression to own ETH upside.


Filmed on on Tuesday 2nd August 2022.


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