Bullish markets with increasing fragility

Updated: Feb 18

In this week's Macro Insight trading call we discussed...

Equities grinded out new highs on the back of a positive growth outlook, positive vaccine rollouts and the prospect of a large fiscal stimulus.

Record low mutual fund cash levels and short interest, bubbly price action in multiple sectors and a narrow breadth to the rally. These all suggest we may have air pockets to the downside if markets do correct.

The biggest question in macro, what will the dollar do next? How far can the reflation trade go?

Pound strength continued as UK surprises to the upside on vaccine rollouts and signals potential for faster re-opening

Gold seemed more likely to retest the downside and even make new lows towards 1650 if the US bond markets continue to fall.

Most of the big macro moves are happening in commodities as rates, equities and FX vols remain relatively muted.

Filmed on Tuesday 16th February 2021.

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